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This year Mashable is curang lucahcelebrating the season of love with Horny on Main, an exploration of the many ways that thirsting for sex affects our lives.

Millennials have been blamed for killing porn, but will they actually be the ones to save the industry in the end?

“A few years ago,” says Alex Hawkins of the porn tube site xHamster, “there were predictions that [millennials] would be the death of the industry.” It is easy to scoff at such grim analyses, given the number of times millennials have been falsely blamed for killing off industries. But there was a compelling logic to the porn world’s fears: While older generations grew up accustomed to paying for porn, millennials have grown up with easy access to an endless stream of free amateur or promo or pirated professional content.

People assumed, Hawkins explains, that this rising generation would never need or want to pay for porn again — and the industry would starve. But over the past year or so, he and othersin the adult world have picked up on a surprising trend. Although many millennials do opt for free porn alone, a surprising number of them have started to shell out for adult content, at least on certain sites. They now actually make up the largest paying porn consumer base for several producers, outspending older generations substantially. All of which leads Hawkins to assert that “millennials may well be the saviors of the porn industry.”

So why exactly has a generation raised on free porn decided to start paying for it?

The free porn apocalypse

The availability of free porn really diddo a number on traditional subscription-based porn companies. Porn finances are so murky that it is hard to find reliable figures, but most experts estimate that in the mid-aughts (before the rise of the tube sites, which began in 2007) the American porn industry was worth between $10 and $14 billion. Ten years later, those estimates plummeted to about $5 billion. It seems clear that this was not due to a drop in overall porn consumption, but was due almost entirelyto the rise of free porn.

Most traditional porn sites say that their remaining paying customers are almost all Gen Xers or older, with a few elder millennials sprinkled in. BangBros CEO Jordan (who only uses his first name for privacy) notes that, “every time I’ve met a millennial, they know the [BangBros] brand. And the first thing they ask is, ‘Who pays for porn?’”

Industry observers spent the bulk of the mid-2010sasking the same question— and casting doubton the viability of new adult industry projects aimed at getting viewers to pay for porn again. Most reached the conclusion that the only a reasons anyone would pay for porn in an era of free content were age, inertia, a lack of tech savvy, fetishist enthusiasm for rare content, or the rare mega fan desire for the newest, exclusive, or collector-targeted content from certain studios or stars.

Hey, big spenders

Starting in the mid-2010s, however, something puzzling happened. Consumer trend data started to show that millennials, despite their access to infinite playlists of free content, were willing to spend even more than earlier generations on movies, shows, and music. As of 2017, reports indicated that the majority of millennials — and a greater proportion of them than in older generations — subscribed to multiple media streaming services. In fact, over a quarter of them spent more than two times the average of what older generations spend on these services. Granted, some millennials are not paying for this content themselves, leaning instead on their parents. But these freeloaders seem to be a surprisingly small minority.

Reports also began to revealthat millennials actually care less about finding a low price and are more willing than older generations to pay a premium for convenience, immediacy, and content they care about. And millennials increasingly care about — will follow and buy from — influencers.

Millennial media spending may be exploding because, although many are still saddled withstudent loan debt, inflated housing costs, and underemployment, a critical mass are finding their feet in the workforce and shoring up their finances. (Millennials are nowthe third largest living generation in the United States, but the largest portion of the labor force.) Freemium gaming and streaming models have also increasingly perfected the psychology of, as Alejandro Freixes of industry trade publication xBizputs it, training people “to drop a couple bucks here, drop a couple bucks there,” even when prudence might say they shouldn’t.

These trends don’t hold across all types of mainstream media. Millennials have notably been less willing in recent years to pay for newsthan entertainment, for instance. (It's worth noting that, thus far, the news media has by and large not done a great job of tapping into the sort of millennial consumer psychology that Freixes brings up.) They have also reported somestreaming service and freemium micro transaction fatigue, signaling that there isa limit to their willingness to go in on new content. There has also historically been more stigma on adult contentthan on other forms of media, which can chill consumers’ willingness to spend on it. So there certainly was no guarantee that millennials would fork over money for porn.

Yet new figures show that’s exactly what is happening. Hawkins says millennials now make up more than half of xHamster’s paying premium consumers. Corey Price, vice president of Pornhub, reports that millennials make up 55 percent of his site’s free users, but 66 percent of its premium users.

Salima, the chief operating officer for a number of porn site networks including Team Skeet and MYLF, notes that over 60 percent of their paying subscribers are millennials, while only 20 percent are Gen Xers and less than 20 percent are boomers. Straight millennial subscriptions increased by over 10 percent over the last three years, she adds.

A number of porn stars who produce their own independent clips and cam also say that, while they do not have firm data, they strongly believe that millennials are both their largest fan and paid consumer bases.

Most studios will admit that they don’t have as many paid subscribers as they used to before the free porn boom, and a jump in millennial subscriptions almost certainly will not fix that. But they and independent performers and producers alike certainly make enough to stay afloat, in some cases thanks to another millennial quirk. Freixes cautions that it is impossible, even for trade publications like xBiz, to get a comprehensive view of consumer demographics and activities, given how secretive many porn companies are about their sales figures. But his general impression is that these millennial consumers are spending morethan older generations as well. Hawkins agrees, adding that xHamster’s data, at least, shows that their millennial buyers spend about twice as much as older demographics.

When porn stars become influencers

A few industry insiders are skeptical about these figures and impressions. The porn world, despite once leadingthe mainstream in tech and operations innovations, has largely lagged behind when it comes to data collection and analysis. Indie producer and performer Lance Hart notes that even the biggest companies rely on “Google Analytics, which isn’t reliable at all at the granular level.”

But these numbers make sense in light of the fact that the porn world — its content, platforms, and stars — have all evolved in recent years into forms that gel with wider millennial consumer patterns. Porn stars, no longer able to rely on shoots with financially waning studios for steady income, have increasingly transformedinto influencers, using the mainstream social media platforms that many millennials essentially live on today to build personal brands and a sense of authentic connection.

Some even develop SFW followings and income on YouTube as, say, ASMR stars (like MyCherryCrush) or Twitch as gamers (like Manuel Ferrara). They then wait for their fans on these mainstream platforms to learn about their adult industry careers, which then funnel eyes and income into the porn world.

Performers use their digital clout to drive fans to platformswhere they can payfor a star’s independently produced clips, order customized videos, cam with them, buy the right to text with them, purchase any number of items ranging from a performer’s photos to their panties, get gifts for them, or just subscribe to themfor a stream of exclusive content. (In this new normal, studio shoots and free tube clips become more like ads for individuals.)

The number of fans performers can convert from casual social media contacts or free clip watchers to paying consumers is exceptionally low by most estimates. And while performers have used their platforms to stress the ethical and practical importanceof paying for content over the last few years, many people still, argues independent clip creator and cam girl Jessica Starling, “feel entitled to women’s time, bodies, attention, and sexuality.”

Even though stigmas around porn consumption are falling, many still don’t feel comfortable or justified in paying for porn; they may see viewing clips on tube sites as more secretive, safer. So they will never pay for content, no matter how much they like a given star, or how much more access, content, or quality they could get by shelling out a little cash.

But, Freixes stresses, most people who pay for porn now do so through this performer-focused system. And they are willing to pay more than most people used to for site subscriptions. Which is handy, because performers have to spend a lot — on web services, independent production costs, and even support services like (for the most successful) assistants like consultants who help them build and maintain a brand or assistants who help them read and respond to fan messages — just to attain and maintain profitability in this system.

Traditional porn studios and free tube sites get somepeople to pay for content because, as Salima argues, “they value quality, customer service, and most of all premium content” they manage to protect from piracy and that their consumers really want to see. Increasingly, though, these studios piggyback off of individual performers’ fan bases. Social media follower counts, or viewer surveys, often determine who they will hire (and the rates they will pay a given performer).

Salima acknowledges that her sites’ ability to respond quickly to user demands, recruiting the stars they want and putting them in exactly the scenarios fans want to see, has been a big part of their success both with millennial consumers and in general. Tube sites, like Pornhub especially, have also found ways of cashing in on fan-performer interactions, creating their own on-site platforms for communicating with porn stars, tipping them, buying their custom content, and so on.

“They can get more bang for their buck by, whenever possible, having performers become ambassadors for their brands,” explains Freixes — the initial draws that might get someone to subscribe to them.

Porn’s shift towards structures that appeal to millennials and work with their consumer habits has not been accidental or incidental. Starling explains that millennials are her target audience. “I have curated my image, brand, and marketing to appeal specifically to single men between their late 20s and mid 30s,” she says.

A number of other porn performers and solo and indie producers I’ve spoken to say much the same thing. As do big studio and tube sites: “The majority of our branding and marketing initiatives,” says Pornhub’s Corey Price, “are conceived with millennial users in mind.”

No one knows for sure what percentage of porn-viewing millennials will ultimately opt to pay for porn, or if the current consumption levels will hold up over time. It is entirely possible that consumer fatigue, or some external economic shock like a major recession, could step in and disrupt this surprising recent trend.

But these recent adult industry figures certainly overthrow yet another narrative about millennials killing a legacy industry by refusing to spend money on anything. As Hawkins puts it, millennials aren’t killing porn — or bar soap or TV or most other things for that matter. They’re just adopting new porn buying patterns and priorities.

Thanks to generational trend observer Malcolm Harris and porn performer Penny Barber for sharing their thoughts and insights for consideration in the development of this piece as well.