Back in February,sex videos of paula and ben the digital media feasted on the Brunt Ice Shelf, touting that a massive slab of ice — some two times the size of New York City — was supposedly poised to snap off into Antarctic waters.
An informative NASA press release with perhaps an overly-eager headline (noting a "countdown" to the event) no doubt stoked excitement among news sites about the ice shelf, which is the end or tongue of a glacier that floats over the ocean.
Yet, some nine months later, Brunt has still yet to calve, or break off, the looming iceberg. The event wasn't so imminent after all — as in impending in the approaching weeks or months. But no one need worry, for the potentially 615-square-mile iceberg will indeed crack off, eventually.
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"It's imminent on a glaciological time scale, how about that?" said Anna Hogg, a polar researcher specializing in satellite observations at the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science at the University of Leeds.
It's hard, if not impossible, to predict when an ice shelf will snap off and spawn an iceberg. Each ice shelf is different, as are the geologic features around and beneath it, as are local atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
"Predicting ice cracks on an ice shelf is almost like predicting when an earthquake is going to occur," said Hogg. Earthquakes can't be predicted.
You must know what's happening under the snow-blanketed surface to grasp how a crack is advancing, or not. "That's the $64,000 question," said Christopher Shuman, a glaciologist at the University of Maryland-Baltimore County and scientist at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, referencing the popular 1950s American game show The $64,000 Question.
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Satellites, using ground-penetrating radar, could eventually be used to see under the snow and look at how the crack is evolving, he said. For now, Shuman estimates that a big rift, dubbed "Chasm 1," has about 4 kilometers (2.5 miles) to go before connecting with another zone of cracks. Then, snap.
Clearly, it's getting close. And this crack is certainly capable of...quickly cracking. Between October 2018 and October 2019, Shuman estimates the rift advanced around 4.5 kilometers, or around 2.8 miles.
For those rooting for the potentially Oklahoma City-sized iceberg, good news lies ahead. The Antarctic winter is over. Even with summer, the frigid landmass — whose lofty mountains are buried in ice up to their necks—will still be terribly cold. But, the added warmth may be enough to edge the crack onwards.
"That's the $64,000 question."
There are a lot of natural cards at play. Who knows what will happen. "It might hang on for another 20 years," Hogg mused, noting that it took some 20 years for the "loose tooth" on Antarctica's Amery Ice Shelf to finally bite the dust.
But for us humans, the real weighty question isn't whenmight the Brunt finally shed this iceberg, but what does it all mean?
As scientists have understood since the 1800s, carbon dioxide is a potent heat-trapping gas capable of heating the planet. Unfortunately, CO2 is now amassing in the atmosphere at historically and geologicallyunprecedented rates, meaning relentless, and ongoing, warming. Antarctica is still damn cold, but this warming has critical implications for the continent's ice sheets.
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Original image has been replaced. Credit: Mashable Specifically, as the planet warms, wind patterns are changing around Antarctica. And these winds, called the polar westerlies, are now pushing warmer ocean waters into Antarctica's ice shelves. These relatively warm ocean waters are melting and eating awaythe ice from below.
The consequences are significant. Overall, recent research suggests the ice-clad continent is losing more than six times as much icethan it was in the 1980s. Between 2009 and 2017, Antarctica lost 2.5 trillionmetric tons of ice. This means accumulating sea level rise.
The shedding of icebergs has been especially pronounced at the Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica. "It's almost constant now," Shuman told me earlier this year, noting significant calving there in 2001, 2007, 2013, 2015, 2017, and 2018. Pine Island might spawn another berg before the year's through.
SEE ALSO: Worst reasons for Trump to quit the Paris climate pact, unrankedPrior to 2012, when this bout of large-scale cracking on Brunt began, the ice shelf had been stable since the 1950s, when The $64,000 Question was all the rage.Now, the ice shelf's stability is in question — at a time when other Antarctic ice shelves have increasingly calvedinto the ocean. It's possible this latest calving event is normal. Or, it could be yet another Antarctic area showing symptoms of instability.
It's too early to tell. "It remains to be seen," said Shuman.
When the new iceberg does break off of Brunt, it will definitely be large, yet not record-breaking. It probably won't crackthe top 20 largest-recorded Antarctic icebergs.
But when it goes, scientists like Hogg and Shuman will be watching. There are a wealth of satellites now scouring the polar regions and Antarctica, a changing land that holds 90 percent of the planet's ice.
"It will be interesting to see what happens this [Antarctic] summer," said Hogg.
The looming southern summer, at least, is imminent.